4.1 Overview of Exhaustees by Census Consolidated Subdivision
Figure 1 reveals that the Northeast Avalon (CCS 1Z) has the highest number of eligible TAGS clients of all CCS areas in the Province. There are currently about 1,130 TAGS clients in this region alone. The map also shows that between 750 and 1,000 persons are eligible for benefits in other areas on the north and south coasts of the Province.
Figure 2 shows eligible TAGS clients as a percent of the population 15 years of age and over by CCS and gives a clearer picture of the degree of reliance in regions of the Province on the TAGS program.
While the Northeast Avalon has the highest number of TAGS clients, those clients account for only a small proportion of the source population of the area. The labour market in this area is larger and more diversified and the relative reliance on the fishery is less prominent.
The south coast and the southern tip of the Avalon Peninsula appear as the most TAGS-reliant areas of the Province. For example, the Harbour Breton area (3B) shows the highest dependency, with 29 to 30 percent of the population eligible for benefits; much of the remainder of the south coast ( 3J, 3EFI and 3C) and the Trepassey Bay areas (1V) reflect relatively high dependency levels with 22 to 28 percent of the source population eligible for benefits. In northerly directions, the Catalina Area (7I), and the Fogo and Change Islands (8N) areas also have 22 to 28 percent of the source population eligible for TAGS. There are also numerous areas throughout the Province where 15 to 21 percent of the source population are clients of the program.
If the TAGS program were to run until 1999 as initially planned, about 12 percent of the 26,510 clients would exhaust their benefits in 1997, about 24 percent in 1998 and the remaining 56 percent would be eligible until the program would cease to operate in 1999. As it currently stands, however, the program may end as early as May 1998 and benefits for any clients still on the program at that time would then cease (see Appendix 8.0 for data regarding the number initially scheduled to exhaust TAGS by month).
Areas which will experience the largest numbers of exhaustees in 1997 will be the Northeast Avalon (1Z) where 260 clients will exhaust their benefits as well as the Strait of Belle Isle Area (9C) and the Labrador East Coast (10B) where 190 and 160 clients, respectively, will exhaust the program.
The areas that could be the most heavily impacted by the ending of the program in 1998 would be those most reliant on TAGS, as illustrated by the map. The degree of impact, however, will be determined by activity in the fishery and the economic situation in areas at the time TAGS ends.