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Our FISCAL Future - Government Renewal Initiative

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What is our current financial state?
($Millions)

  2015-16
Budget
2015-16
Update
Variance
Revenue 6,567.3 5,725.7 (841.6)
Net Income of Government Business Enterprises 409.1 363.0 (46.1)
Total Revenue 6,976.4 6,0887.7 (887.7)
 
Gross Expenses:      
Program Expenses 7,182.0 7,229.8 47.8
Debt Servicing Expenses 887.8 821.8 (66.0)
Total Expenses 8,069.8 8,051.6 (18.2)
 
Deficit (1,093.4) (1,962.9) (869.5)

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Where Does the Money Come From?
December 2015 Estimate ($Millions)

Personal Income Tax $1,299.4 21.3%
Sales Tax $1,000.7 16.4%
Health and Social Transfers $685.1 11.2%
Other Taxes $655.0 10.8%
Other Provincial Resources $559.0 9.2%
Offshore Royalties $551.8 9.1%
Other Federal Sources $451.8 7.4%
Government Business Enterprises $363.0 6.0%
Corporate Income Tax $352.5 5.8%
Fees and Fines $170.4 2.8%

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Where Does the Money Go?
December 2015 - Expenses by Sector ($Millions)

Health Care Sector $3,071.5 38%
General Government Sector and Legislative Branch $968.2 12%
Education Sector $892.4 11%
Post-Secondary Education $864.4 11%
Debt Expenses $821.8 10%
Other Social Sector $790.0 10%
Resource Sector $643.3 8%

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Where do the salary dollars go?
Fall Update 2015-15 ($Millions)

Regional Health Authorities $1,437.9 40%
Core Government $899.4 25%
School Boards $669.0 18%
Memorial University $439.8 12%
College of the North Atlantic $104.5 3%
Other ABCs $75.8 2%

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Fiscal Outlook
($Millions)

  2015-16
Update
2017-18
Forecast
2017-18
Forecast
2018-19
Forecast
2019-20
Forecast
2020-21
Forecast
Total Gross Revenue 6,088.7 6,220.6 6,680.7 6,918.8 7,087.9 7,139.0
Gross Expenses:

Program Expenses 7,229.8 7,645.9 7,486.6 7,584.2 7,668.2 7,718.2
Debt Servicing Expenses 821.8 1,011.5 1,1149.5 1,267.3 1,338.7 1,387.2
 
Total Gross Expenses 8,051.6 8,657.4 8,636.1 8,851.5 9,006.9 9,105.4
Deficit (1,962.9) (2,436.8) (1,955.4) (1,932.7) (1,919.0) (1,966.4)
 
Net Debt 12,436.2 15,056.0 17,199.3 19,215.4 21,078.5 22,947.6
Required Borrowing 2,400.0 3,700.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 1,800.0 2,000.0

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Required Borrowing?
2015-16 - 2020-21 ($Billions)

  2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Pension Promissory Notes $187.7 $323.7 $323.3 $323.3 $323.3 $323.3
Infrastructure $597.3 $607.4 $521.1 $434.6 $325.8 $301.5
Nalcor Equity $760.0 $1,331.9 $666.9 $208.4 ($448.0) ($467.3)
Interest & Debt Repayment $376.2 $541.0 $676.8 $788.6 $864.3 $923.3
Other $478.8 $896.0 $811.9 $745.1 $734.6 $919.2

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Net Debt Increases
($Billions)

2014-15 $10.5
2015-16f $12.4
2016-17f $15.1
2017-18f $17.2
2018-19f $19.2
2019-20f $21.1
2020-21f $22.9

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Thank You

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Email: OurFiscalFuture@gov.nl.ca

Telephone - Toll-Free: 1.844.805.3494

Government Renewal Initiative
Executive Council
P.O. Box 8700 Main Floor, West Block Confederation Building
St. John's, NL A1B 4J6

 

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