Population Projections — About the Data

Updated: October 2023

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Data are available from 1986 to 2043.

Historical data for the entire province (1986-2023) and the St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) (2001-2022) are the official population estimates from Statistics Canada available at the time of publishing. Historical data for all other years and geographical areas were derived by the Economics Division.

The projection data are produced using the Economics Division’s population projection system, which is designed to project long-term population by age and gender for Newfoundland and Labrador and various sub-provincial regions, including economic zones.

The system relies on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration to produce three different population projection scenarios for Newfoundland and Labrador. The medium scenario is considered to be the most likely scenario.

The population projections are available by five-year age cohorts and gender.

Population projections are available for various levels of geography. These geographies are:

    • Total Province
    • St. John’s CMA (2016 boundaries) (view map)
    • Economic Zones (view map)
    • Rural Secretariat Regions (view map)
    • Former Regional Health Authorities (view map)

A Population Projection Simulator is also provided which allows users to observe the sensitivity of population projections to changes in key assumptions.

Users who wish to access the latest Statistics Canada official population estimates should visit the Newfoundland & Labrador Statistics Agency site.

 

Economics Division, Department of Finance – (709) 729-3255 – infoera@gov.nl.ca