Updated: June 2026
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The Economics Division has a population projection system integrated with its economic and labour market forecasts. The system is designed to project the population by age and gender for Newfoundland and Labrador and its various sub-provincial regions, such as economic zones.
The system relies on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. These are based on historical trends, forecasts and other modern developments. To account for these unknowns, three different population projection scenarios are prepared for Newfoundland and Labrador. The medium scenario is consistent with the Economics Division’s Budget 2026 economic forecast.
High Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility – The total fertility rate gradually trends up from an estimated rate of 1.12 in 2025 to 1.32 in 2045.
- Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 3.8 years between 2025 and 2045. Female life expectancy increases by 2.9 years over the same period.
- Migration – Net in-migration decreases from around 6,000 in 2025 to around 3,400 in 2026, before increasing to reach a peak of 11,600 in 2029 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, net in-migration declines as major project developments end. Net in-migration decreases to around 2,600 in 2040 before rebounding to average roughly 3,200 by 2045. Net in-migration averages about 4,600 per year over the entire projection period from 2026 to 2045.
Medium Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility – The total fertility rate remains constant near 1.12 over the entire projection period.
- Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends in age-specific mortality rates. Male life expectancy increases by 2.3 years between 2025 and 2045. Female life expectancy increases by 1.7 years over the same period.
- Migration – Net in-migration decreases from around 6,000 in 2025 to around 3,100 in 2026, before increasing to reach a peak of 11,100 in 2029 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, net in-migration declines as major project developments end. Net in-migration drops to 2,200 in 2040 before rebounding to average roughly 2,800 by 2045. Net in-migration averages about 4,200 per year over the entire projection period from 2026 to 2045.
Low Scenario Assumptions
- Fertility – The total fertility rate declines from an estimated rate of 1.12 in 2025 to 0.90 in 2045.
- Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.2 years between 2025 and 2045. Female life expectancy increases by 1.0 years over the same period.
- Migration – Net in-migration decreases from around 6,000 in 2025 to around 2,400 in 2026, before increasing to reach a peak of 10,700 in 2029 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, net in-migration declines as major project developments end. Net in-migration decreases to around 1,800 in 2040 before rebounding to average roughly 2,400 by 2045. Net in-migration averages about 3,800 per year over the entire projection period from 2026 to 2045.