Population Projections — Assumptions

Updated: October 2023

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The Economics Division has a population projection system integrated with its economic and labour market forecasts. The system is designed to project the population by age and sex for Newfoundland and Labrador and its various sub-provincial regions, such as economic zones.

The system relies on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration. These are based on historical trends and modern developments. To account for these unknowns, three different population projection scenarios are prepared for Newfoundland and Labrador. The medium scenario is considered to be the most likely scenario. This scenario is the one used by government for planning purposes.

High Scenario Assumptions

  • Fertility – The total fertility rate gradually trends up from an estimated rate of 1.22 in 2023 to 1.41 in 2043.
  • Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends. Male life expectancy increases by 4.1 years between 2023 and 2043. Female life expectancy increases by 2.9 years over the same period.
  • Migration – Net in-migration is assumed over the forecast period. In-migration decreases from around 5,300 in 2024 to around 4,800 in 2026, before increasing to 6,100 by 2030 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, labour shortages due to population aging are expected to result in sustained in-migration. Net in-migration averages roughly 4,100 by 2043. Net in-migration averages about 5,000 per year over the entire projection period from 2024 to 2043.

Medium Scenario Assumptions

  • Fertility – The total fertility rate remains constant near 1.22 over the entire projection period.
  • Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase in line with recent trends in age-specific mortality rates. Male life expectancy increases by 2.3 years between 2023 and 2043. Female life expectancy increases by 1.4 years over the same period.
  • Migration – Net in-migration is assumed over the forecast period. In-migration decreases from around 5,100 in 2024 to around 4,500 in 2026, before rebounding to around 6,000 by 2030 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, labour shortages due to population aging are expected to result in sustained in-migration. By 2043, annual net in-migration averages roughly 4,000. Net in-migration averages about 4,800 per year over the entire projection period from 2024 to 2043.

Low Scenario Assumptions

  • Fertility – The total fertility rate declines from an estimated rate of 1.22 in 2023 to 1.12 in 2043.
  • Mortality – Life expectancies continue to increase but at rates slightly below historical trends. Male life expectancy increases by 1.4 years between 2023 and 2043. Female life expectancy increases by 0.8 years over the same period.
  • Migration – Net in-migration is assumed over the forecast period. In-migration decreases from around 4,900 in 2024 to around 4,300 in 2026, before rebounding to around 5,600 by 2030 in response to improved labour market conditions due to the expected development of major projects. In the longer term, labour shortages due to population aging are expected to result in sustained in-migration. Annual net in-migration averages roughly 3,800 in 2043. Net in-migration averages approximately 4,500 per year over the entire projection period from 2024 to 2043.

 

Economics Division, Department of Finance – (709) 729-3255 – infoera@gov.nl.ca